Arresting Exodus

New Brunswick faces many long term economic problems, the greatest being changing demographics and the decline of the population. The average age of New Brunswickers has increased by five years in the last ten: from 35 to 40 between 1997 and 2007. The birth rate in New Brunswick is less than half of what it was 1960 and more than half of the babies born in New Brunswick leave the province permanently (a rate much higher among university graduates), while more than half of those immigrating to New Brunswick from other provinces and other parts of the world are retirees (GNB Department of Finance, 2008). Consensus among economists is that this trend will bankrupt the province by 2020 if nothing is done.

The result is a ticking time bomb, where New Brunswick will not have enough productive workers paying income taxes to pay for students and retirees. These demographics benefit most from health care and education, which together cost roughly 3 billion of New Brunswick's 6 billion provincial budget.

Retaining students with Post-Secondary is essential as they constitute 1/6th of the population while making up 40% of the tax base. For the $50,000 cost of educating a university graduate the government gets back about $500,000 in the form of income taxes.

There is no question that the disproportionately high levels of tuition fees and student debt in NB compared with the rest of Canada are driving university grads away to jurisdictions with higher income earning potential. Even premier Shawn Graham admitted this in his 2008 state of the province address.

Ireland, 15 years ago, was in the same demographic and economic tailspin that the Maritimes are currently experiencing. Now they're known as the Celtic Tiger for their astounding economic turnaround. How did they do it, you ask? By eliminating tuition fees, focusing on retaining university graduates and using this demographic as an engine for economic growth.

Eliminating tuition will make the province richer, but only if we bite the bullet and invest in retaining university grads in New Brunswick in order to turn their newly acquired skills and knowledge into productive capacity.

Chuck Fournier